Democrats moving right up!
New poll detects a change in the political climate in the Capitol
Then came The Poll.
Texas Democrats have pulled even with Republicans, and the state is now about half red, half blue. At least, that’s according to 1,053 Texans surveyed by an independent Democratic pollster.
The poll’s news announcement focused on one specific response: By 46 percent to 35 percent, respondents said Democrats “care” more about “people like me.” That’s a reversal from two years ago.
But most eyes went immediately to the bottom line of the poll, conducted in early December by Austin-based Montgomery & Associates:
Asked which political party they lean toward, 45 percent chose Democrat.
Only 43 percent chose Republican. If you figure in the poll’s margin of error, that’s a tie.
Two years ago, in the same Democratic poll, Republicans led by 55 percent to 34 percent.
That is an exciting development. It was a poll of Texas adults not likely voters but it is still a change in direction and if we can get out there and get voting numbers up then there shouldn’t be a distinction between adults and likely voters.
“There is an attitude change nationally that is affecting Texas,” said Cal Jillson, the Southern Methodist University political science professor who correctly foresaw a Republican sweep of state offices in the November elections and also the Democratic gains in the Texas House.
“People are increasingly concerned with the results they see from the Republican majority,” he said. “In Austin, those numbers are playing themselves out in the hanging of Tom Craddick. Republicans have begun to panic that the unease in the public is going to be taken out of their hide.”
This change was a long time coming. It is great that the legislature has this information before they go back into session. We might see a very different Texas legislative session. Politicians live and die by poll numbers and while I understand polls don’t always tell the whole story they don’t. Okay, that is me not being fair I am sure they understand that polls don’t give a totally accurate picture, they make the polls and so they know they can skew them with leading question and skewed answered.
Last year I took a national political poll (Boy, that poor kid was sure sad my number was called)and the questions were transparent. You sound like an idiot answering no, I don’t want to be safe from terrorists when in reality the answer is no, I don’t want my civil liberties stepped all over by this administration. They don’t give you those options though so I answered the only way I could which was that I don’t accept the premise of the question and here is my answer and this is why. I am pretty sure my particular responses probably weren’t counted but the poor kid on the phone certainly understood by the time I hung up that the questions he was asking were worded outrageously and so the results would be incorrect. So, while I don’t put a whole lot of stock in polls this one is still encouraging.
By the numbers
Political parties Texans say they lean toward:
Party 2006 2005 2004 Democrat 45.1% 37.2% 33.9% Republican 42.6 49.2 54.7 Independent 6.4 10.5 10.2 SOURCE: Montgomery & Associates
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Filed under: Polls, Texas House of Representatives, Texas Legislators, Texas Legislature, Tom Craddick, democrat, republican, texas, texas politics
